DVOA in football stands for Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average. It measures how efficient an NFL team is on every play compared to league average, adjusted for opponent and situation.
If you’ve ever looked at NFL stats and felt like the raw numbers didn’t tell the full story, you’re right they don’t. What is DVOA in football? It’s the advanced statistic that fixes that problem. Instead of just counting yards and touchdowns, DVOA measures what actually happened on every play compared to what a league-average team would do in the exact same situation.
In this guide, you’ll learn how it works, what the numbers mean, real-world examples of it in action, and how it stacks up against EPA another popular advanced stat.
DVOA Explained in 30 Seconds
| Name | Details |
|---|---|
| Full Name | Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average |
| Created By | Football Outsiders (now used by FTN Fantasy) |
| What It Measures | Efficiency of every single play vs. league average |
| Who It Covers | Any team or player in the NFL |
| Positive DVOA | Better than the average team |
| Negative DVOA | Worse than the average team |
| Three Parts | Offensive DVOA + Defensive DVOA + Special Teams DVOA |
What Is DVOA in Football, Exactly?
DVOA stands for Defense-Adjusted Value Over Average a stat built by Football Outsiders to measure true NFL efficiency. Traditional stats are easy to misread. A 15-yard gain sounds great, but if it came on 3rd-and-20, the offense still failed. A 3-yard run looks ordinary, but on 3rd-and-2, it’s a success. DVOA measures every single play in context down, distance, field position, game situation, and opponent then compares it to league average.
The output is a simple percentage:
- A DVOA of 10.0% means a team is 10% more efficient than the average NFL team
- A DVOA of -20.0% means a team is 20% less efficient than average
- 0% always represents perfectly average performance the baseline every team is measured against
DVOA measures a team’s real performance, not just its box score. That’s what makes it one of the most trusted advanced stats in football today.
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How DVOA Is Calculated
DVOA is calculated by rating every play of the NFL season against a baseline of average success. Here’s how the process works:
- Every play is evaluated — was it a success or failure given what was needed for a first down, a red zone score, or positive field position?
- Situation is factored in — the type of play, down, distance, and field position all adjust the expectation
- Opponent strength is applied — beating a strong defense counts more than padding stats against a weak one
- Three scores are produced — offensive DVOA, defensive DVOA, and special teams DVOA combine into one total DVOA
A number of variables go into each play rating, which is why DVOA adjusts far more accurately than traditional stats. Since DVOA is league average based, the average team always sits near 0%. Any team consistently above that mark is genuinely better than the average team in the NFL.
Important: Technically, the defensive stats are flipped. A negative defensive DVOA is good it means opponents performed well below average against that defense.
DVOA Rankings: Reading the Numbers
DVOA rankings update weekly during the NFL season and give a clear picture of every team in the league. Here’s a simple guide to what the numbers mean:
| DVOA Range | What It Signals |
|---|---|
| +20% or higher | Elite one of the best teams in the NFL |
| +5% to +20% | Above average a quality team |
| -5% to +5% | Average right in the middle |
| -5% to -20% | Below average a struggling team |
| -20% or lower | Poor bottom of the league |
DVOA breaks down into three separate rankings:
- Offensive DVOA — how efficiently the offense performs per play
- Defensive DVOA — how well the defense suppresses opponent efficiency
- Special Teams DVOA — field goal kicking, punting, and return performance
The total team DVOA combines all three. A team can post a strong offensive DVOA but rank poorly overall because of a weak defense and DVOA exposes that instantly.
Real-World DVOA Examples
Seeing DVOA in action makes it much easier to grasp. Here are two clear examples from recent NFL history.
The 2018 Los Angeles Rams — Elite DVOA in Action
The 2018 Rams finished with one of the highest total DVOA scores of the modern era. They led the NFL in offensive DVOA by a wide margin, reflecting how efficiently quarterback Jared Goff and the offense operated on every single play not just in terms of raw yardage, but in converting the right plays at the right moments. Their overall DVOA confirmed what their record suggested: they were the best team in the league that NFL season, not just a stats-inflated squad.
The 2007 New England Patriots — Historic Efficiency
The 2007 Patriots are widely cited by Football Outsiders as one of the highest-DVOA offenses ever recorded. Their offensive DVOA was historically high, reflecting an offense that didn’t just score points it was relentlessly efficient on every down, in every situation, against every level of competition. Even when adjusted for opponent strength, their DVOA score remained elite. That’s the power of the stat: it confirmed their dominance was real, not a product of a soft schedule.
These examples show why advanced football analysts trust DVOA over win-loss records alone. A team with a low DVOA despite a good record is often due for regression. A team with a high DVOA despite early losses as sometimes happens in Week 1 is likely better than their standing suggests.
DVOA vs EPA: Which Advanced Stat Is Better?
EPA (Expected Points Added) is the other major advanced NFL stat you’ll encounter, used heavily by ESPN and NFL Next Gen Stats. Both DVOA and EPA are far better than traditional stats, but they work differently.
| Title | DVOA | EPA |
|---|---|---|
| Created By | Football Outsiders / FTN Fantasy | Multiple sources, popularized by ESPN |
| Measures | Efficiency vs. league average, adjusted for opponent | Points value added or lost on each play |
| Opponent Adjustment | ✅ Yes — a core feature | ❌ Not built in by default |
| Situation Adjustment | ✅ Yes — down, distance, field position | ✅ Yes — based on expected scoring |
| Best Used For | Season-long team and player evaluation | Play-by-play and game-level analysis |
| Availability | FTN Fantasy, Football Outsiders | ESPN, NFL.com, open datasets |
The Key Difference
EPA answers: “How many points did this play add or cost?” DVOA answers: “How did this team perform compared to an average NFL team in the same situation?”
EPA is excellent for real-time game analysis and is widely available as open data, which is why it’s popular in the analytics community. But since DVOA adjusts for opponent quality, it’s generally considered more reliable for evaluating a team or player over a full NFL season. A quarterback who posts great EPA numbers against weak defenses will often see that advantage shrink under DVOA’s opponent adjustment.
For a football fan who wants the most accurate season-long ranking, DVOA is the stronger tool. For watching and analyzing individual games as they happen, EPA is more accessible and just as insightful.
DVOA and DYAR: A Quick Comparison
DVOA and DYAR are both Football Outsiders stats, but they answer different questions.
- DVOA is a rate stat how efficient is this team or player per play?
- DYAR (Defense-Adjusted Yards Above Replacement) is a volume stat how much total value did a player add over a replacement-level option?
Together, they give the fullest picture of the value of a player in the NFL. A quarterback might have a great DVOA (very efficient) but a lower DYAR (smaller sample of snaps). Both stats together tell the complete story.
Honest Issues With DVOA
DVOA is powerful, but it’s not flawless. Here are real issues with DVOA worth knowing:
- Early-season samples mislead DVOA in Week 1 or 2 can swing wildly before stabilizing
- Injuries mid-game aren’t captured losing a key player changes everything DVOA can’t fully reflect
- Weighted DVOA (which prioritizes recent games) helps reduce noise but isn’t a complete fix
- It can undervalue explosive, high-variance offenses that don’t fit a consistent play-by-play pattern
Despite these limits, no other single football statistic does a better job of measuring real efficiency across a full NFL season.
Conclusion
What is DVOA in football? It’s the most complete advanced statistic available for measuring true NFL efficiency adjusting every single play for opponent, situation, and context in a way that traditional stats simply can’t.
Whether you’re comparing it to EPA, tracking DVOA rankings week to week, or using it to make smarter fantasy football decisions, DVOA gives you a clearer picture of which teams and players are genuinely performing at a high level. Start with Football Outsiders or FTN Fantasy, check the updated DVOA scores each week, and you’ll never look at a box score the same way again.
FAQs
Is a higher or lower DVOA better?
Higher for offense and special teams. Lower (negative) for defense.
Is DVOA important?
Yes it’s the most accurate way to measure NFL efficiency because it adjusts for opponent, situation, and context.
Who created DVOA?
Aaron Schatz at Football Outsiders in 2003. FTN Fantasy now owns it.
What is route DVOA?
It measures receiver efficiency on every route run not just when targeted adjusted for coverage and opponent.
