EPA (Expected Points Added) is an advanced NFL statistic that measures how much a single play increases or decreases a team’s expected scoring based on down, distance, field position, and game situation. A positive EPA means the play helped the offense. A negative EPA means it hurt them.
What is EPA in football or Expected Points Added is one of the most powerful advanced metrics in NFL analytics today. It measures how much a single play improves or hurts a team’s chances of scoring. Unlike traditional stats like yards or completion percentage, this EPA NFL stat tells you the real value of what just happened on the field.
In this article, you’ll get EPA football explained from scratch what it means, how it’s calculated, why NFL teams rely on it, and how you can use it to better evaluate quarterbacks, running backs, and entire offenses.
What Is EPA in Football and What Does It Stand For?
What does EPA mean in football? EPA stands for Expected Points Added a stat that assigns a point value to every single play based on how it changes a team’s scoring outlook. To fully grasp it, you first need to know what “Expected Points” (EP) means.
Every play in football starts with a specific field position, down, and yards to go. Based on decades of historical data, analysts have calculated how many points a team is expected to score from any given situation. For example, a 1st and 10 at your own 20-yard line might have an EP value of around +0.5 points. A 1st and 10 at the opponent’s 20-yard line might be worth +4.0 points.
EPA is the change in expected points from before the play to after it.
If a quarterback throws a 30-yard completion and the EP value jumps from +1.0 to +3.5, that play produced +2.5 EPA. If a running back fumbles and the offense loses the ball, that turnover could swing EPA by -4 or more points. The expected points added NFL model applies this logic to every snap in every game.
Positive vs. Negative EPA
- Positive EPA = the play helped the offense (or hurt the opposing offense, for defenders)
- Negative EPA = the play hurt the offense (a sack, an incompletion on 3rd down, a turnover)
Every play has an EPA value. Every player accumulates total EPA across a season.
Read Also: What Is DVOA in Football? Guide to the NFL’s Most Powerful Stat
How Is EPA Calculated in the NFL?
How is EPA calculated? The formula is straightforward, even if the data behind it takes years to build:
EPA = Expected Points After the Play – Expected Points Before the PlayBefore each snap, a model assigns an EP value based on down, distance, yard line, and other situational factors. After the play, a new EP value is assigned to the resulting situation. The difference is the EPA for that play.
NFL teams, broadcasters, and football analytics sites like Pro Football Focus now treat this statistic as a core tool for evaluating player performance. Here’s why it matters more than old-school stats.
EPA vs Traditional Stats
| Stat | What It Misses |
|---|---|
| Yards per carry | Whether the run came on 3rd and 1 vs. 3rd and 10 |
| Completion percentage | Whether the completion moved the chains or not |
| Total yardage | Game situation and field position |
| Points scored | Individual contributions |
A 4-yard gain on 3rd and 3 is a success. A 4-yard gain on 3rd and 8 is a failure. Both show up as “4 yards” in a box score but EPA captures the difference.
EPA Per Play and EPA Per Dropback
Two of the most common NFL EPA stats are:
- EPA per play measures how efficient an offense or defense is on average across every snap
- EPA per dropback specifically tracks how a quarterback performs each time he drops back to pass
A quarterback with a high EPA per dropback is consistently putting his team in better scoring positions. This is why many analysts prefer it over simple completion percentage or yards per attempt. It accounts for situation, score, time remaining, and field position all at once.
How NFL Teams and Analysts Use EPA to Evaluate Quarterbacks
No position benefits more from EPA than the quarterback. Traditional stats like completion percentage can be misleading. A QB who dumps the ball off for a 2-yard gain on every play might have a great completion rate but a terrible EPA.
Advanced metric sites now use EPA per dropback as a primary QB ranking tool. The league average EPA per dropback hovers around 0.0, since every positive play for one team is a negative for the other. Elite quarterbacks often post +0.20 or higher per dropback. Poor ones sit well below 0.
Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE) is often paired with EPA to give a fuller picture of QB accuracy adjusted for throw difficulty.
EPA for Running Backs
EPA also applies to the running back position. A RB with positive EPA on runs is consistently gaining more yardage than the situation called for not just piling up yards in garbage time. This helps teams separate productive backs from those who benefit from great offensive lines.
How to Use EPA in Fantasy Football
Fantasy football analysts have started incorporating NFL EPA data into their weekly rankings. A player with high average EPA per touch is likely getting real value touches not just stats that look good on a box score.
Sites that track NFL EPA data can help fantasy players identify:
- QBs who are truly efficient, not just stat-padding
- Running backs with genuine success rate on their carries
- Receivers who gain extra yards after contact (high EPA on receptions)
If a player consistently produces high EPA values, they’re helping their real team win and likely helping your fantasy team too.
What Is the Difference Between EP and EPA in Football?
EP (Expected Points) is the value assigned to a situation before a play happens. EPA is the result how much that value changed after the play.
Think of EP as the “before” and EPA as the “after.” The difference between them is the EPA value for that individual play.
New Expected Points models have become more sophisticated over time, using machine learning and larger datasets to improve accuracy. Modern NFL analytics departments build their own internal EP models that factor in things standard public models may not.*/
Why Is EPA Important in Football Analytics?
Traditional broadcast stats focus on volume: total yards, touchdowns, total carries. EPA focuses on the value of each play in context.
- A turnover deep in opponent territory has massive negative EPA
- A conversion on a gain on 3rd down has huge positive EPA even if it’s only 3 yards
- A long run in a blowout win has lower EPA than the same run in a tie game
EPA allows analysts to separate truly valuable plays from empty statistics. It’s why football analytics has changed how franchises draft, how coaches call plays, and how fans evaluate what they see on Sunday.
Conclusion
EPA Expected Points Added is the gold standard of modern NFL analytics. It measures the real impact of every play by comparing how many points a team was expected to score before and after the snap. Unlike traditional stats, EPA captures game situation, field position, down, distance, and time all at once.
Whether you’re evaluating a quarterback’s efficiency, a running back’s true value, or building a better fantasy football lineup, learning to read this EPA NFL stat will transform the way you watch the game of football. Start by checking EPA per play and EPA per dropback when comparing players you’ll never go back to raw yardage alone.
FAQs
How does EPA work in football?
EPA measures how much a play changes a team’s expected points. It’s the difference between expected points before and after the play.
What is EPA for a QB?
For a quarterback, EPA shows how much value he adds per play, usually measured as EPA per dropback.
How does EPA work?
It subtracts expected points before a play from expected points after it. The result is the play’s EPA.
What does EPA stand for in sports?
EPA stands for Expected Points Added.
